Top Scorer Watch

Golden Boot projections & the scoring race

Updated 6:30 AM· next 1:00 AM
JB
AI projected Golden Boot
FRA
Kylian Mbappé
France · FWD
5.4
Projected goals
16.7%
Win probability
Top-scorer formula

Why Mbappé leads the model

Proj. matches
5.2
Deep tournament run
Expected mins
92'
Per match
Goals / 90
0.92
Elite rate
Penalty taker
Yes
+ bonus
Group difficulty
0.971
Favourable
Injury risk
Low
Fully fit
The race

Golden Boot Leaderboard

1
FRA
Kylian MbappéPK
Penalty taker, deep tournament run projected
Golden Boot 16.7%
5.4
Proj. goals
1
2
ENG
Harry KanePK
Pens + open play, England favoured to go far
Golden Boot 15.2%
5
Proj. goals
1
3
ARG
Lautaro Martínez
Elite finisher on champions' projected run
Golden Boot 13.1%
4.3
Proj. goals
4
ESP
Lamine Yamal
Volume creator, finishing rising sharply
Golden Boot 11.5%
3.8
Proj. goals
1
5
NOR
Erling HaalandPK
World-class finisher and penalty taker. Medium injury risk the only drag. Norway in tough Group I (France).
Golden Boot 11.2%
3.6
Proj. goals
6
ARG
Julián Álvarez
Shares minutes, secondary pen option
Golden Boot 9.3%
3
Proj. goals
7
BRA
Vinícius Júnior
High xG but Brazil exit risk in QF
Golden Boot 8.3%
2.7
Proj. goals
1
8
NED
Cody Gakpo
Versatile, on penalties for Netherlands
Golden Boot 7.6%
2.5
Proj. goals
9
POR
Rafael Leão
Breakout form, Portugal deep run plausible
Golden Boot 7%
2.3
Proj. goals
1